Alitalia at a crossroads

| Wed, 04/09/2008 - 05:36

Trading of Alitalia shares remained suspended on the Milan stock exchange Tuesday ahead of a board meeting at the troubled national carrier at which some indication of the airline's life expectancy will be made public.

There are unconfirmed reports that the airline as sufficient funds to keep flying until the end of May and its options of avoiding bankruptcy remain limited.

On Monday, the board at Air France-KLM said that any strategic alliance with Alitalia was now up to the Italian government, the board at the carrier and, above all, the airline's unions.

Air France-KLM broke off talks with Alitalia unions over what it considered to be excessive modifications to its takeover offer.

Unions have since voiced their readiness to negotiate, also in response to a groundswell of protest within their ranks in favor of a deal, but Air France-KLM has reiterated that there is little if an anything which can be modified in their offer.

Alitalia unions are set to meet with the government on Wednesday to examine Alitalia's future.

The French-Dutch carrier said from the beginning that its offer hinged on the approval of both unions and then Italian government.

Although the outgoing government of Premier Romano Prodi had given its green light to the merger, Italy goes to the poll this weekend and a victory by the center right, as polls appear to indicate, would all but doom the Air France-KLM offer in its current form.

Because a new government is not expected to be seated until mid-May, Alitalia has little room to plot a stand alone strategy.

European Union regulations do not allow the carrier to receive state aid, unless it has found a strategic partner. At present only Air France-KLM has shown any real interest.

This leaves the option of going into receivership, which would allow Alitalia to to qualify for state aid under the so-called Marzano Law, that allows financially troubled industrial companies to restructure.

However, while this law was successful for companies like food giants Parmalat and Cirio, which produced earnings but were straddled with massive debts, Alitalia's problems are both financial and structural.

Added to this, the nature of the air transport sector will make it very difficult for Alitalia to restructure and become competitive.

If restructuring is not possible, Alitalia would be declared bankrupt and its assets, including planes, routes and slots, sold to help pay off the airline's debts.

Alitalia has some 1.4 billion euros in debt and is said to be losing about a million euros a day.

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