The center-right People of Freedom (PDL) coalition continues to maintain a comfortable lead over the center-left Democratic Party (PD) but it may not be enough to win a majority in the Senate, according to the last opinion polls published before they are suspended ahead of the April 13-14 elections.
The PDL, which is allied with the Northern League in the north and the centrist MPA in the south, has a lead ranging from 9.2% to 5% over the PD, which is allied with the Italy of Values party of former Clean Hands prosecutor Antonio Di Pietro.
However, while this will ensure that the PDL has a majority in the House, where extra seats are awarded to ensure a majority based on the national results, the situation is different in the Senate where the extra seats are decided based on regional results.
Italy's proportional electoral law, which was pushed through by the center right before the 2006 elections and replaced a first-past-the-post system, also sets an 8% threshold in the Senate, compared to 4% in the house, for parties to win seats.
These thresholds drop respectively to 3% and 2% if the parties are part of a coalition.
In an article published Friday in the Corriere della Sera daily, Italian pollster Renato Mannheimer said that in five swing regions neither the PDL nor the PD has a clear majority, a difference of less than 2% between them.
According to the pollster, this could play in the PD's favor, especially considering the high percentage of undecided voters, which some polls put at between 20% and 30% but which most organizations believe is closer to 10%.
In the 2006 elections, Mannheimer recalled, center-right leader Silvio Berlusconi campaigned hard in the final weeks and produced a virtual stalemate in the Senate, which proved to be the downfall of outgoing Premier Romano Prodi.
What remains to be seen, he added, is whether PD leader Walter Veltroni, the popular ex-Rome mayor, can beat Berlusconi at his own game.
Mannheimer added that while the PDL's average lead over the PD stood at 6%, trends indicated Veltroni was gaining ground.
Key to the Senate outcome, Mannheimer said, will be the performance of the two leading outsiders in the elections, the Left Rainbow coalition and the centrist UDC of ex-House speaker Pier Ferdinando Casini.
Most recent polls show both parties hovering around 7% on a national level, but the Left Rainbow is much stronger in Italy's central regions, once referred to as the 'Red Belt', while the UDC has strong support in the deep south.
What remains to be seen, Mannheimer observed, is how well they do in the five swing regions, which include the central region of Lazio and Calabria in the south, and whether this will be enough to deny the PDL a majority in the Senate.
