Polls differ on Democrats' recovery

| Thu, 03/13/2008 - 04:34

Two new polls out this week have given different views on the gap between the center right People of Freedom (PDL) coalition and Democratic Party (PD) ahead of next month's elections.

A poll by the SWG research group on Monday and Tuesday found that the PD, are now 4-5 percentage points behind the PDL, compared to 5.5-6 points five days earlier.

This brought the gap between the two leading contenders for the April 13-14 vote back closer to the 4-6 percentage points recorded ten days ago.

However, a poll by Demoskopea, carried out between March 6 and 10, put the gap between the two rivals at 9 percentage points, unchanged from a similar poll a week earlier.

Based on this week's interviews, SWG said the coalition led by the PDL, a merger between ex-premier Silvio Berlusconi's Forza Italia party and the right-wing National Alliance (AN) of Gianfranco Fini, has between 42.5 and 43% of voter support, down from 43.5-44.5% on March 6.

Within the PDL coalition - which includes the regionalist Northern League in the north and the Christian Democrat-inspired MPA in the south- the PDL's popularity slipped from 36-37% to 34.5-35%, while the Northern League's rose from 6-6.5% to 7% and the MPA's dipped from 1-1.5% to 1%.

The PD, allied with ex-prosecutor Antonio Di Pietro's Italy of Values (IDV) party and running members of the Radical Party on its ticket, saw its support climb in five days from 36-5-38% to 38-38.5%.

The popularity of the PD alone rose from 33-34% on March 6 to 34-34.5%, almost level with the PDL, while the IDV inched up from 3.5% to 4%.

Demoskopea, on the other hand, put the PDL at 40.5%, the Northern League at 4% and the MPA at 0.5%, bringing the center-right total to 45%.

The PD was stable at 33.5% and the IDV held at 2.5% to give the center left a total of 36%, Demoskopea said.

Both polling organizations said the Union of Christian Democrats (UDC), led by ex-House speaker Pier Ferdinando Casini, lost ground as did The Left-Rainbow coalition.

SWG said the UDC in a week fell from 6.5-7% to 5-6%, while Demoskopea said it sank from 7.5% to 7%.

The Left-Rainbow dropped from 7-7.5% to 6.5-7% for SWG and 8% to 7.5% for Demoskopea.

The Right, a National Alliance breakaway party, saw its support rise from 1.5-2% to 2-2.5% for SWG and from 2% to 2.5% for Demoskopea.

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