Although the center-right People of Freedom (PDL) coalition maintains a strong lead over the center-left Democratic Party (PD), it may not win a majority in the Senate, a new poll issued on Wednesday showed.
This because of the electoral law passed by the previous center-right government of Silvio Berlusconi which awards extra seats to the winning coalition - in order to ensure a majority - on a regional basis in the Senate, compared to a national basis in the House.
This proportional electoral law, which was pushed through before the 2006 elections and replaced a first-past-the-post system, also sets a 4% threshold in the House and an 8% one in the Senate for parties to win seats.
These thresholds drop respectively to 2% and 3% if the parties are part of a coalition.
According to the IPR research group, if the PD wins big in the regions of Lazio and Abruzzo, taking seats away from The Left Rainbow (SA) and the centrist UDC party, the PDL will not have a majority in the Senate.
The PDL currently leads the PD by between seven to nine percentage points but this in large part due to its strong support in core regions in the north-northeast and south.
Focusing on those seven regions where the outcomes were still uncertain and where the SA and UDC appeared likely to reach the 8% threshold, IPR came up with four possible scenarios.
The first was the most favorable to the PDL and saw it not only win in the five regions where it is strongest (Lombardy, Veneto, Sicily, Friuli and Campania) but coming in first also in Piedmont, Liguria, Lazio, Puglia, Calabria and perhaps even Sardinia.
This would mean that the PDL, which is allied with the Northern League in the North and centrist MPA in the south, would end up with 160 senators. This compared to 123 for the PD. while the SA would have 18 and the UDC 14. The 'opposition' would thus have a total of 155.
The second scenario saw the PDL win its five core regions and come out in front in five out of the seven regions where the outcome is still uncertain.
In this case, the center right would have 154 senators compared to 130 for the PD. With the addition of 18 seats for SA and 13 for the UDC, the non-PDL parties would have a majority of 161 seats.
The third scenario has the PDL winning only four of the seven regions up for grabs and thus taking only 151 seats compared to 133 for the PD and the SA and UDC with 18 and 13 seats respectively, extending the non-PDL's lead to 164 to 151.
The fourth scenario had the center right winning only two extra regions while the PD won the rest and the SA and UDC picked up their usual number.
This would give the center right only 147 seats compared to 168 for the non-aligned center, center left and left parties.
