There is cautious optimism in the men's fashion world that the economy will pick up at the end of the year and open the way towards a recovery in 2010.
Speaking on the sidelines of the Milano Uomo men's fashion trade show, Gibo' CEO Franco Pene' painted a pessimistic picture for the sector this year, predicting that ''2009 will see a 30% drop in business and so we just have to survive this year and hope for a better 2010''.
Looking on the relatively bright side, Pene' said ''it would appear that the crisis has bottomed out, that the decline is over and we can see some signs of a recovery''.
''However, it will take years and years before we return to a pre-crisis level. And we will only see those numbers again if there is a strong boost in demand, an explosion on the new markets like India, China and Brazil,'' he added.
Ferragamo Group CEO Michele Norsa was less pessimistic over 2009 and said that ''I don't think we'll see a 30% drop, at least not for us''.
Men's fashion, he observed, ''adapts better in times of difficulty, it's quicker in shedding excesses. Plus, men's fashion is stronger in the emerging markets and men have never been lavish spenders like women and so there won't be such a steep drop in spending''.
According to Armando Branchini of Altagamma, ''we can expect a 10% increase in spending at Christmas and this will mark the start of a recovery in 2010''.
Christmas last year represented a low for the season with consumer spending falling by 1.9% over the same period in 2007, with a 2.7% drop for non-food goods.
This contributed to an overall 0.6% decline in consumer spending for the year, an all-time record since national statistics bureau Istat began monitoring retail sales and beating the previous record of -0.4% set in 2004.
Milan Uomo began on Saturday and ends on Wednesday.
